Although electric forklifts are rapidly gaining ground, diesel forklifts will not completely disappear from the historical stage. Instead, the two will coexist in a pattern of "scenario differentiation":
Scenarios dominated by electric forklifts:
✅ High-frequency indoor operations (e.g., e-commerce warehousing, supermarket distribution centers) – (remarkable low noise and zero-emission advantages);
✅ Light/medium-load scenarios (vehicles below 3 tons) – (cost advantages of lithium batteries are prominent);
✅ Policy-sensitive areas (e.g., city centers, industrial parks) – (mandatory compliance requirements).
✅ High-frequency indoor operations (e.g., e-commerce warehousing, supermarket distribution centers) – (remarkable low noise and zero-emission advantages);
✅ Light/medium-load scenarios (vehicles below 3 tons) – (cost advantages of lithium batteries are prominent);
✅ Policy-sensitive areas (e.g., city centers, industrial parks) – (mandatory compliance requirements).
Irreplaceable domains of diesel forklifts:
✅ Heavy-load/ultra-long-duration operations (e.g., mines, steel plants, ports) – (the power reserve of diesel engines and the convenience of refueling are irreplaceable);
✅ Harsh environments (high temperatures, high dust, no charging facilities) – (durability of mechanical structures and fuel adaptability offer greater advantages);
✅ Heavy-load/ultra-long-duration operations (e.g., mines, steel plants, ports) – (the power reserve of diesel engines and the convenience of refueling are irreplaceable);
✅ Harsh environments (high temperatures, high dust, no charging facilities) – (durability of mechanical structures and fuel adaptability offer greater advantages);
✅ Markets with lagging stock renewal (e.g., small and medium enterprises in developing countries) – (customers sensitive to initial costs still rely on diesel models).
The essence of the trend: The market is not an "either-or" choice but a precise match based on operational intensity, environmental conditions, and budget cycles. Leading enterprises have begun to implement a "dual product line" strategy, launching full-series electric models while retaining diesel vehicles for specific scenarios.
The electrification "penetration curve" for the next decade:
According to the 2023 Global Industrial Vehicle Market Report, the market share of electric forklifts (including lithium and lead-acid) is expected to rise from 45% in 2023 to 68% in 2030, with lithium battery models accounting for over 50%. The core variables driving this growth include:
According to the 2023 Global Industrial Vehicle Market Report, the market share of electric forklifts (including lithium and lead-acid) is expected to rise from 45% in 2023 to 68% in 2030, with lithium battery models accounting for over 50%. The core variables driving this growth include:
- Declining battery costs: Improvements in lithium resource mining technology and breakthroughs in solid-state battery R&D are expected to reduce lithium battery costs by another 40% by 2030;
- Improved infrastructure: Major global economies are accelerating the deployment of industrial-grade charging networks. For example, Germany plans to build 100,000 commercial charging piles by 2025;
- Mature carbon trading mechanisms: When the cost of corporate carbon emission quotas exceeds the cost of equipment replacement, the economic viability of electric forklifts will further expand.
Conclusion: Electrification is a trend, but "replacement" must respect scenario-specific laws
The rise of electric forklifts is an inevitable result of the industrial sector's transformation toward low-carbon and intelligent operations, with its core competitiveness lying in compliance dividends and long-term efficiency advantages. For enterprises, the choice between electric and diesel forklifts is essentially a decision-making process that balances "policy compliance costs," "scenario adaptability," and "whole-life cycle benefits." Electrification is not an endpoint but a new starting point for industrial power innovation.
The rise of electric forklifts is an inevitable result of the industrial sector's transformation toward low-carbon and intelligent operations, with its core competitiveness lying in compliance dividends and long-term efficiency advantages. For enterprises, the choice between electric and diesel forklifts is essentially a decision-making process that balances "policy compliance costs," "scenario adaptability," and "whole-life cycle benefits." Electrification is not an endpoint but a new starting point for industrial power innovation.
